Last minute polls.
TAPPED has them (plus lots of good piss and angst) for the Senate. The good news: Montana doesn't look close anymore (Burns is toast) and Ford is only down three in TN. The bad news: Confederate George has pulled ahead of Jim Webb in Virginia, and Lincoln Chaffee has really narrowed the gap with Sheldon Whitehouse in RI (my prediction: he'll only switch if the Dems plus Lieberman can control the Senate with his vote.)
Nail-biting time. Stare-at-percentages time. But since the Senate is the only set of predictions I got anything close to right in 2004, here are my Senate picks:
McCaskill over Talent in MO
Tester over Burns in MN
Mendendez over Keane in NJ
Cardin over Steele in MD
Chafee over Whitehouse in RI
Webb over Allen in VA
Lieberman over Lamont in CT
Brown over DeWine in OH (yay!)
...and
Ford over Corker in TN. (Yes, yes, I know. I want to believe so I do.)
That makes Dem pickups in PA (good news, and not even worth "predicting", although in my view Santorum isn't even in the top tier of awful Republicans and Casey is the worst kind of troublemaking Dem), VA, MT, OH, TN, MO. The lone GOP upset is Chaffee holding RI. Dems take the Senate.
For the House, I have a gloomier (and less informed) prediction of a 14-16 seat gain based on voter reversion to partisan loyalties when faced with names of candidates they've never heard of in the voting booth. As much as I love the sound of "Speaker Pelosi", I think it's genuinely up in the air.
So there it is. Bite, bite, gnaw, gnaw. Oh, one more prediction: Joe Lieberman will be even more obnoxious in the new term than he's been in the past. But he'll still vote the right way most of the time. Probably more than Casey.
Nail-biting time. Stare-at-percentages time. But since the Senate is the only set of predictions I got anything close to right in 2004, here are my Senate picks:
McCaskill over Talent in MO
Tester over Burns in MN
Mendendez over Keane in NJ
Cardin over Steele in MD
Chafee over Whitehouse in RI
Webb over Allen in VA
Lieberman over Lamont in CT
Brown over DeWine in OH (yay!)
...and
Ford over Corker in TN. (Yes, yes, I know. I want to believe so I do.)
That makes Dem pickups in PA (good news, and not even worth "predicting", although in my view Santorum isn't even in the top tier of awful Republicans and Casey is the worst kind of troublemaking Dem), VA, MT, OH, TN, MO. The lone GOP upset is Chaffee holding RI. Dems take the Senate.
For the House, I have a gloomier (and less informed) prediction of a 14-16 seat gain based on voter reversion to partisan loyalties when faced with names of candidates they've never heard of in the voting booth. As much as I love the sound of "Speaker Pelosi", I think it's genuinely up in the air.
So there it is. Bite, bite, gnaw, gnaw. Oh, one more prediction: Joe Lieberman will be even more obnoxious in the new term than he's been in the past. But he'll still vote the right way most of the time. Probably more than Casey.
1 Comments:
Laura-
Did you hear anything from Charlie Cook or Stuart Rothenberg? They were both predicting minimum 20 House seats for the Dems. And they should know. Party time!
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