The crapshoot that is Canadian federal polling.
From the Globe and Mail, October 19th:
Liberals widen gap in poll
The federal Liberals are creeping into range of a majority government as the gap between them and the Conservatives widens to levels not seen since well before the revelations of the Gomery commission.
...Conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV News, the survey suggests Canadians crave stability in the federal realm and are calling on Jack Layton to back the Liberals to undertake the nation's business.
Moreover, the disparity between the Liberals and the second-place Conservatives has grown to 13 percentage points, figures that were last seen in the fall of 2004.
...The poll found that, if an election were held today, the Liberals would get 38 per cent of the vote, up one percentage point from the 2004 election, while the Conservatives would take 25 per cent, down almost five points from 2004.
The New Democrats are supported by 15 per cent of voters, about the same as 2004, but down from the 19-per-cent range where they hovered during the spring and early summer.
From the Globe and Mail, October 20th:
Liberal Lead Shrinking, New Polls Shows
The federal Liberals' lead over the Conservatives has shrunk to five percentage points, a new Decima survey suggests.
The Liberals held 34 per cent support and the Conservatives had 29 per cent, says the survey provided to The Canadian Press.
Decima found a 13-percentage-point lead for the Liberals in a survey at the start of the summer, but said subsequent polls have indicated a declining trend.
...The NDP remained at 18 per cent while the Bloc Québécois held a mammoth 28-point lead over the Liberals in Quebec. The Liberals led the Tories by eight points in Ontario.
Well, ok, in actuality it's only a four point difference in the Liberals' standing between the two polls -- although that 4% could be the difference between minority and majority status. Also, from the Globe/ CTV poll, Jack Layton remains by far the most popular of the three national party leaders (60% approval), while Martin has improved his numbers since the summer, going from 44% to 49% approval. While I'm no NDPer, Layton certainly deserves his glowing approval ratings. Since he dropped his election demagoguery, he's been an effective leader, and a good influence on the Liberals. If he can use the fall election card to make the Liberals start talking again about health care, even better. Martin might be able to raise his own numbers, and his party's fortunes, if he'd actually (as a friend argued to me recently) say a few concrete, reaffirming things about health care -- like he did after the Chaoulli ruling came down -- instead of leaving all the soundbites to the Canadian Medical Association and the Fraser Institute. Things like this:
My friends, the more I travel this wonderful country, the more it is clear to me that Canadians remain deeply attached to the core principles at the heart of our health care system. Principles that express shared values. Principles of fairness, of equity, of mutual respect and of collective responsibility for improving human health by providing access to care-based need.
These core values have remained constant; they have not shifted in any fundamental way. And this government's commitment to preserve and strengthen our single tier, publicly-funded health care system has not shifted either. Nor will it.
That was health minister Ujjal Dosanjh speaking at Queens. This might sound like handwaving, but my guess it's what a lot of Canadians want to hear -- prominently and from the most prominent Liberals. Recent polls show a general level of pessimism about the government's ability to improve the health care system as it stands, but also strong support for a big federal role in enforcing benchmarks and shoring up the system. It would be nice to hear affirmation for that role from somewhere to the right of the NDP. A little bit of leadership could go a long way here.
Liberals widen gap in poll
The federal Liberals are creeping into range of a majority government as the gap between them and the Conservatives widens to levels not seen since well before the revelations of the Gomery commission.
...Conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV News, the survey suggests Canadians crave stability in the federal realm and are calling on Jack Layton to back the Liberals to undertake the nation's business.
Moreover, the disparity between the Liberals and the second-place Conservatives has grown to 13 percentage points, figures that were last seen in the fall of 2004.
...The poll found that, if an election were held today, the Liberals would get 38 per cent of the vote, up one percentage point from the 2004 election, while the Conservatives would take 25 per cent, down almost five points from 2004.
The New Democrats are supported by 15 per cent of voters, about the same as 2004, but down from the 19-per-cent range where they hovered during the spring and early summer.
From the Globe and Mail, October 20th:
Liberal Lead Shrinking, New Polls Shows
The federal Liberals' lead over the Conservatives has shrunk to five percentage points, a new Decima survey suggests.
The Liberals held 34 per cent support and the Conservatives had 29 per cent, says the survey provided to The Canadian Press.
Decima found a 13-percentage-point lead for the Liberals in a survey at the start of the summer, but said subsequent polls have indicated a declining trend.
...The NDP remained at 18 per cent while the Bloc Québécois held a mammoth 28-point lead over the Liberals in Quebec. The Liberals led the Tories by eight points in Ontario.
Well, ok, in actuality it's only a four point difference in the Liberals' standing between the two polls -- although that 4% could be the difference between minority and majority status. Also, from the Globe/ CTV poll, Jack Layton remains by far the most popular of the three national party leaders (60% approval), while Martin has improved his numbers since the summer, going from 44% to 49% approval. While I'm no NDPer, Layton certainly deserves his glowing approval ratings. Since he dropped his election demagoguery, he's been an effective leader, and a good influence on the Liberals. If he can use the fall election card to make the Liberals start talking again about health care, even better. Martin might be able to raise his own numbers, and his party's fortunes, if he'd actually (as a friend argued to me recently) say a few concrete, reaffirming things about health care -- like he did after the Chaoulli ruling came down -- instead of leaving all the soundbites to the Canadian Medical Association and the Fraser Institute. Things like this:
My friends, the more I travel this wonderful country, the more it is clear to me that Canadians remain deeply attached to the core principles at the heart of our health care system. Principles that express shared values. Principles of fairness, of equity, of mutual respect and of collective responsibility for improving human health by providing access to care-based need.
These core values have remained constant; they have not shifted in any fundamental way. And this government's commitment to preserve and strengthen our single tier, publicly-funded health care system has not shifted either. Nor will it.
That was health minister Ujjal Dosanjh speaking at Queens. This might sound like handwaving, but my guess it's what a lot of Canadians want to hear -- prominently and from the most prominent Liberals. Recent polls show a general level of pessimism about the government's ability to improve the health care system as it stands, but also strong support for a big federal role in enforcing benchmarks and shoring up the system. It would be nice to hear affirmation for that role from somewhere to the right of the NDP. A little bit of leadership could go a long way here.
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