Postscript: Schroeder calls a national election
Yesterday, I wrote:
So there's some hope in Germany that Schroeder's SPD might still have something to offer the international Third Way. Whether they can save it -- and themselves -- tomorrow and in 2006 remains to be seen.
Well, it seems that Schroeder isn't content to simply wait and see. After today's expected defeat at the polls in North Rhine-Westphalia (89 seats to the CDU vs. 86 for the SPD-Greens), Schroeder has taken the suprise step of calling an early national election. It will be the first early Bundestag election in Germany since 1983 and, if Schoeder stands as the SPD candidate for Chancellor, only the second early election in post WWII German history not precipitated by a change of leadership.
According to the BBC, Schroeder gave his reasoning as follows:
But it takes time for the [Agenda 2010] reforms to have a favourable impact on the life of all people in our country.
Above all, citizens must support such a policy.
The bitter result for my party in North Rhine-Westphalia jeopardises the political basis for the continuation of our task.
I think that for the reforms to be pursued, the majority of Germans must clearly back them now.
Therefore I believe that it is my duty and responsibility as chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany to take steps so that the president of the republic can use the possibilities offered by the constitution to open the path to new elections to the German Bundestag [the lower house of the German parliament] as quickly as possible, that is realistically in the autumn of this year.
Currently, the SPD is trailing by as much as 20 points nationally to the CDU and Schroeder is not giving his party much time to turn those numbers around. Will he stand down? (And if so, will Muntefering take his place?) Will the SPD continue their critique of aspects of global capitalism? (If so, the fact that the election call rallied the DAX might or might not be a good place to start.) Will they mainly try to make the (almost certainly accurate) case that the CDU's likely, though as yet unspelled out, reforms will be more painful than Agenda 2010?
At any rate, one has to admire Schroeder's statement (which seems to have received mostly good press so far). Reform does require the consent of the governed, and reforming governments require not just grudging but clear support, like that which can be delivered in fresh elections (though, once again, the choice will most likely again be between the mainstream right and the centre, with no cohesive leftwing or antireformist choice). Europe, much more obviously than the more liberal Britain and North American countries, is grappling hard with neoliberal reform. It's ideological spectrum is wider, its history longer, its 20th Century domestic history more turbulent, its population more diverse, and the potential changes being proposed to its socio-economic systems greater than in the more liberal West. This excellent (and surprisingly fair-minded) Washington Post article captures the popular angst and ideological wrangling involved with the build-up to France's May 29th referendum on the EU constitution. These are big issues at stake, and how populations feel toward their governments, at home and in Brussels, is an important determinant of the results.
Schroeder is making the right case for a Bundestag election, and it's a gutsy move on his part. The case he makes for his, and his party's, reelection will be interesting to watch.
So there's some hope in Germany that Schroeder's SPD might still have something to offer the international Third Way. Whether they can save it -- and themselves -- tomorrow and in 2006 remains to be seen.
Well, it seems that Schroeder isn't content to simply wait and see. After today's expected defeat at the polls in North Rhine-Westphalia (89 seats to the CDU vs. 86 for the SPD-Greens), Schroeder has taken the suprise step of calling an early national election. It will be the first early Bundestag election in Germany since 1983 and, if Schoeder stands as the SPD candidate for Chancellor, only the second early election in post WWII German history not precipitated by a change of leadership.
According to the BBC, Schroeder gave his reasoning as follows:
But it takes time for the [Agenda 2010] reforms to have a favourable impact on the life of all people in our country.
Above all, citizens must support such a policy.
The bitter result for my party in North Rhine-Westphalia jeopardises the political basis for the continuation of our task.
I think that for the reforms to be pursued, the majority of Germans must clearly back them now.
Therefore I believe that it is my duty and responsibility as chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany to take steps so that the president of the republic can use the possibilities offered by the constitution to open the path to new elections to the German Bundestag [the lower house of the German parliament] as quickly as possible, that is realistically in the autumn of this year.
Currently, the SPD is trailing by as much as 20 points nationally to the CDU and Schroeder is not giving his party much time to turn those numbers around. Will he stand down? (And if so, will Muntefering take his place?) Will the SPD continue their critique of aspects of global capitalism? (If so, the fact that the election call rallied the DAX might or might not be a good place to start.) Will they mainly try to make the (almost certainly accurate) case that the CDU's likely, though as yet unspelled out, reforms will be more painful than Agenda 2010?
At any rate, one has to admire Schroeder's statement (which seems to have received mostly good press so far). Reform does require the consent of the governed, and reforming governments require not just grudging but clear support, like that which can be delivered in fresh elections (though, once again, the choice will most likely again be between the mainstream right and the centre, with no cohesive leftwing or antireformist choice). Europe, much more obviously than the more liberal Britain and North American countries, is grappling hard with neoliberal reform. It's ideological spectrum is wider, its history longer, its 20th Century domestic history more turbulent, its population more diverse, and the potential changes being proposed to its socio-economic systems greater than in the more liberal West. This excellent (and surprisingly fair-minded) Washington Post article captures the popular angst and ideological wrangling involved with the build-up to France's May 29th referendum on the EU constitution. These are big issues at stake, and how populations feel toward their governments, at home and in Brussels, is an important determinant of the results.
Schroeder is making the right case for a Bundestag election, and it's a gutsy move on his part. The case he makes for his, and his party's, reelection will be interesting to watch.
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